Disappointing monsoon will affect which stocks ?

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with poor monsoon rain I am worried about my stocks. Which stock should be most affected if rainfall stays poor ?


About stockguru

Stockguru has been investing in Indian Stocks since 1990.With an MBA in finance from Pune university and more than 20 years experience in finance industry he is a well respected finance professional.

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This is is very good question at this time.

Indian's monsoon is below average for 2 weeks in row. According to IMD country received 23.5 mm of rain compared to 65.9 avg. That's a shortfall of 65%. We have already started noticing food prices jump. Sugar at all time high and pulse prices shooting through.

How will affect people and companies

1. Inflation will increase  : That means same money will buy less stuff. Hence consumer will have to spend more money on necessary items like food and patrol and less money is left for things like movie ,entertainment or a trip to mall.

2. Indian is home of 25 crore farmers. That's almost 25% of our population. They depend on farm income. A poor monsoon will heart farmers spending power.

3. Agribusiness related sales like ITC echapual , mahindar and mahindra tractor business and automobiles ( bajaj and hero honda ) will see declining sales.

4. Lower construction spending will affect cement stocks.

In general india is still heavily dependent on farm income for its economy. Kotak securities reduced its GDP forecast to 4.8 % from 6.5% earlier.

Stocks to avoid
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Automobiles , cement, crop protection ( pesticides ), white goods FMCG

Safer stocks
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Banks , IT, Hotels, Infrastructure.

 

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